Markets

The global oil market remains under a delicate balance of forces, with fundamental supply and demand factors battling against financial market positioning.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) has slightly revised its global refinery throughput forecast upward, now projecting 83.4MM b/d in 2025, compared to its previous estimate of 83.3MM b/d.

Diverging Oil Price Forecasts: EIA, Banks, and Analysts Weigh in on 2025 and Beyond

The global oil market in 2025 is poised to see a surplus, driven by increasing non-OPEC+ supply and modest demand growth.

Demand forecasts for 2025 have also been revised downward by several agencies, including OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA).

Oil prices for 2025 are projected to remain moderate, influenced by a combination of weaker demand growth, supply surpluses, and geopolitical uncertainties.

The inclusion of US WTI in the Dated crude benchmark has successfully added liquidity and transparency to the market, helping revive participation from long-absent market players and encouraging new entrants.

Recent political developments in Syria, despite its minimal oil output, could significantly affect global crude markets due to its strategic location and alliances with Russia and Iran.

OPEC has made its deepest cut yet to its 2024 oil demand forecast, marking the fifth consecutiveOPEC has revised its oil demand forecast for 2024 downwards for the fifth consecutive month, now predicting a growth of just 1.6MM b/d, a 27% reduction from its July estimate. month of downward revisions.

As President-elect Donald Trump prepares for a return to the White House, the oil and gas industry has cautiously assessed the potential impacts of his policies.