Opportunity Crudes

The latest developments in oil production and exports in three major heavy-oil players, i.e., Canada, Mexico, and Venezuela, are expected to impact US and, to some extent, Asian and European refiners in the coming years.

USD Partners said on Dec. 16 its new diluent recovery unit (DRU) at the Hardisty Energy Terminal in Alberta, Canada is now fully operational and processing over 50K b/d, with most of this output going to anchor customer ConocoPhillips (COP).

In June, five major oilsands producers—Suncor Energy Inc., Canadian Natural Resources Ltd., Cenovus Energy Inc., Imperial Oil Ltd., and MEG Energy—announced the Oil Sands Pathways to Net Zero initiative, which was formed with a goal of achieving net-zero GHG emissions from oilsands operations by 2050 to help Canada meet its climate goals.

PDVSA production reports reviewed by S&P Global Platts showed on Nov. 30 that the South American country's oil output in Nov. rose by 40K b/d from Oct. to 660K b/d amid Orinoco Belt output rising by 40K b/d to 420K b/d following the receipt of Iranian condensate cargoes last month under a six-month oil swap deal signed by the two countries that allowed Venezuela to boost its diluent inventories to 1.7MM bbl, the highest level since 2019 when imports of naphtha and light crude were halted due to US sanctions.

On Nov. 19, officials announced that the Canadian government's 300K-b/d pipeline will remain closed for another week after landslides and severe floods in British Columbia forced its closure on Nov. 14.

The country's Energy Minister told Argus that Ecuador aims to boost its crude production to 1MM b/d from an average of 515.0K b/d this year.

Even though there has been increasing scrutiny over the environmental performance of the sector and oilsands producers have continued to exercise capital discipline despite rising oil demand and prices, Canadian oilsands production is poised to hit a record high of 3.5MM b/d in Dec. as output increases from existing assets, according to Analyst Matt Murphy of investment bank Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co.

Ecuador President Guillermo Lasso's conservative administration took office in May, vowing to double oil output to 1MM b/d, with the administration announcing in July a framework to boost output

There is a prevailing sentiment that the results of Venezuela's Nov. 21 elections will likely result in the US keeping sanctions on crude exports from the Latin American country in place.

According to a Reuters report, citing unnamed sources familiar with the matter, Iran and Venezuela have signed a six-month deal to swap heavy Venezuelan crude for Iranian condensate.