Opportunity Crudes

Even though there has been increasing scrutiny over the environmental performance of the sector and oilsands producers have continued to exercise capital discipline despite rising oil demand and prices, Canadian oilsands production is poised to hit a record high of 3.5MM b/d in Dec. as output increases from existing assets, according to Analyst Matt Murphy of investment bank Tudor, Pickering, Holt & Co.

Ecuador President Guillermo Lasso's conservative administration took office in May, vowing to double oil output to 1MM b/d, with the administration announcing in July a framework to boost output

There is a prevailing sentiment that the results of Venezuela's Nov. 21 elections will likely result in the US keeping sanctions on crude exports from the Latin American country in place.

According to a Reuters report, citing unnamed sources familiar with the matter, Iran and Venezuela have signed a six-month deal to swap heavy Venezuelan crude for Iranian condensate.

Following Prime Minister Justin Trudeau winning a third term, the CEO of the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers Tim McMillan called on Trudeau in a Sept.-20 statement to provide further support to Canada's oil and gas industry.

That is the opinion of GlobalData, which claims that Venezuela's heavy oil project reserves will be left stranded as international players divest their interest due to the high risks foreign firms face in the country combined with Venezuela's unstable deteriorating economy.

Despite US sanctions remaining in place, Chinese firms are returning to the South American nation after leaving in Aug. 2019 due to these sanctions as the Maduro regime looks to court foreign investment to revive its dying oil industry.

Two oil-producing nations in the Western Hemisphere are facing different challenges: Canadian oilsands encountering climate scrutiny coupled with political rhetoric during the country's election and Venezuelan tarsands seeking ways to sustain production and outside assistance to survive.

Canadian oil output has rebounded to pre-COVID-19 levels and is expected to grow over the coming years.

After requesting on Aug. 11 that OPEC+ raise supply in order to keep fuel prices from spiking too severely, the US Biden administration has been facing pushback from home and abroad, particularly from Canada, which has a symbiotic relationship with the US.