Markets

As the Middle East crisis drags on, the global energy landscape faces a severe supply crunch with both the US, the world's number one oil consumer, and China, the leading oil importer, simultaneously drawing down their strategic and commercial reserves.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has blocked 14 MM b/d of crude transit since Feb. 2026, triggering an unprecedented physical deficit.

A three-month total closure of the Strait of Hormuz has shut in between 10MM b/d and 15MM b/d.of crude oil.

The global crude oil market enters the final week of May 2026 balanced on a razor's edge.

The Middle East conflict and subsequent blockades have driven three distinct trends: increased long-term upstream exploration spending, localized reinvestment in high-yield well interventions, and the revitalized development of secure frontiers like Alaska and Africa.

The global energy landscape is currently navigating a period of extreme duality, where the optimism of a potential US-Iran ceasefire is clashing with the rigid, logistical realities of the physical oil market.

The ongoing conflict at the Strait of Hormuz has severed the primary artery for Persian Gulf crude, creating a stark divergence in the global energy market.

The eight-week closure of the Strait of Hormuz has evolved into the most significant energy security threat in modern history, surpassing the combined impact of the 1973 and 1979 oil crises.

As the Iran war disrupted Middle East oil supplies and sent crude prices above $95/bbl, major oil companies posted a starkly divided financial picture in Q1 2026.

The high-stakes negotiations between the US and Iran in Islamabad on Apr. 11 failed to produce a breakthrough, resulting in both delegations walking away from the table after 21 hours of intense dialogue.