Markets

Despite pervasive forecasts of an oil glut leading to a price crash, benchmark oil prices have remained remarkably stable, refuting the

The week of Sep. 22–26, 2025, was marked by significant volatility in global oil markets, driven by escalating geopolitical tensions and shifting supply dynamics.

Global oil demand growth is tracking at approximately 0.8 MM b/d year-to-date through Sep. 17, with an average of 104.4 MM b/d, closely aligning with J.P. Morgan (JPM) forecasts.

The OPEC+ group's actual increase in oil output is significantly trailing the headline figures agreed upon to unwind voluntary cuts.

According to the Baker Hughes rotary rig count released on Sep. 19, North America added six rigs week-on-week, marking the third consecutive weekly increase, bringing the total count to 731 (542 in the US and 189 in Canada).

The global energy and geopolitical landscape is being reshaped by intensified pressure from the US and escalating military conflict.

A major, two-and-a-half-year supply disruption in the global oil market has ended, with Iraq, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG), and Turkey agreeing to resume oil exports via the Iraq-Turkey pipeline starting on Sat., Sep. 27.

Iran is escalating its oil sanctions evasion through a proposed Iraq-Oman pipeline deal, which analysts fear will offer a new route to disguise and export crude to China.

The US is pressuring India to abandon its purchase of discounted Russian oil, making it a prerequisite for securing a vital trade deal.

There is no better illustration of the US oil sector's global relevance than its strong export performance.