Markets

The global oil market is currently navigating a period of significant oversupply, or a

Two major consultancy reports, McKinsey’s Global Energy Perspective 2025 and Wood Mackenzie’s Energy Transition Outlook 2025-2026, project that fossil fuels will maintain a significant role in the global energy mix for decades, representing a major shift in forecaster sentiment.

The US and the European Union (EU) significantly escalated sanctions against Russia to choke its main energy revenue streams and fund its war in Ukraine.

The global oil market is experiencing significant disruption and realignment, driven primarily by new US sanctions targeting major Russian energy firms like Lukoil and Rosneft.

Lower oil prices in 2025 compared to 2024 levels are driving US oil and gas majors to restructure, seek efficiencies, and implement deep job cuts—the most significant in the US shale patch in three years.

The current crisis involves Venezuela cancelling energy deals with Trinidad and Tobago (T&T) in retaliation for T&T's cooperation with the US military presence in the Caribbean

US biofuel production capacity growth slowed dramatically in 2024, increasing only a modest 3% from Jan. 2024 to Jan. 2025.

The US government has dramatically escalated its economic pressure on Russia by imposing direct sanctions on the country's two largest oil companies, Rosneft and Lukoil.

The oil market experienced significant volatility during the week, initially weighed down by mounting signs of a global supply surplus before staging a dramatic rebound triggered by fresh US sanctions on major Russian producers.

The market's prevailing bearish sentiment is rooted in expectations of a major global supply surplus and deep skepticism about the effectiveness of US and EU sanctions on Russian oil.