Markets

The global oil market enters the next week facing a potent combination of geopolitical supply risk and crucial structural demand support.

The near-future outlook for oil prices is dominated by a fierce

The global oil market is now locked in a high-stakes conflict, defined by the OPEC+ cartel deliberately shifting its strategy from prioritizing price stabilization to a robust market share defense against the rapid and record-breaking growth of US shale production.

The energy industry is actively embracing Artificial Intelligence (AI) and digital transformation, viewing it as a positive force that is simultaneously increasing energy demand and offering solutions for efficiency.

Two major consultancy reports, McKinsey’s Global Energy Perspective 2025 and Wood Mackenzie’s Energy Transition Outlook 2025-2026, project that fossil fuels will maintain a significant role in the global energy mix for decades, representing a major shift in forecaster sentiment.

The market's prevailing bearish sentiment is rooted in expectations of a major global supply surplus and deep skepticism about the effectiveness of US and EU sanctions on Russian oil.

A landmark report from McKinsey & Company, the Global Energy Perspective 2025, combined with strong demand forecasts from major oil producers like OPEC and Saudi Aramco, indicates a significant shift in the anticipated timeline for the global energy transition.

The oil market is characterized by a growing bearish consensus driven by expectations of oversupply, yet prices are supported by persistent geopolitical risks and high financing costs that could make a coming glut more volatile and destructive than in the past.

The near-term outlook for the global oil market is defined by a fierce clash between rising supply pressures and persistent geopolitical risks, with the former currently dominating prices.

Global oil demand growth is tracking at approximately 0.8 MM b/d year-to-date through Sep. 17, with an average of 104.4 MM b/d, closely aligning with J.P. Morgan (JPM) forecasts.