Markets

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has blocked 14 MM b/d of crude transit since Feb. 2026, triggering an unprecedented physical deficit.

The global energy market experienced a turbulent trading week as crude oil futures reacted sharply to a tug-of-war between fluctuating Middle Eastern geopolitics and underlying fundamental pressures.

Looking ahead to the upcoming week of June 8–12, 2026, energy risk reviewers, traders, and analysts must navigate an exceptionally complex landscape.

The global oil market is currently navigating a highly volatile environment defined by conflicting diplomatic signals and eroding physical supply buffers.

Between Jun. 1 and Jun. 5, US crude markets tightened dramatically as modest gains from domestic production climbing toward historic milestones were completely overwhelmed.

The escalating war in Iran and the near-total closure of the Strait of Hormuz since Mar. 2026 have removed over 1B bbl. of oil supply from the Middle East, leaving a 675 MM bbl. shortfall from Jan. to May 2026 compared to 2025.

In Jun. 2026, international energy majors and top-tier financial institutions dramatically accelerated their commitments to Argentina’s Vaca Muerta shale formation.

In June 2026, the Middle East energy landscape began charting a complex path toward recovery following devastating supply disruptions from the war with Iran and the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

As maritime disruptions in the Middle East forced major Asian economies away from Persian Gulf suppliers, a combination of eased US sanctions, diplomatic overtures, and structural overhauls allowed non-Middle Eastern producers—specifically Venezuela, Canada, and the US—to rapidly capture vital market shares.

As traditional crude oil prices fluctuated, major global economies—including Malaysia, Indonesia, Brazil, Japan, and Australia—accelerated their transition toward advanced biofuels to secure sustainable alternatives for the aviation and maritime sectors.