Markets

Recent shifts in oil price forecasts reflect a complex interplay of geopolitical tensions, economic uncertainties, and fluctuating supply and demand dynamics.

Canada's expanded Trans Mountain pipeline and new emissions cap both have substantial implications for US refineries, affecting both short-term operations and long-term crude supply dynamics.

Gaza ceasefire talks and weak economic data from China and the US pushed down futures prices, but hopes for an interest-rate cut in the US prevented greater week-on-week losses.

Latin American producer’s oil output has surged significantly since it began in 2019, escalating from 70K b/d in 2020 to 380K b/d in 2023.

Sara Wagenknecht, the founder of Germany’s ultra-left party BSW, has proposed lifting the embargo on Russian oil if her party gains influence in Brandenburg’s state government.

As of the latest available data from 2024, the combined oil and gas production in Africa is approximately 6.4MM b/d and 17.5B cf/d respectively.

A recent report by BofA Global Research highlights a potentially soft oil market due to increased non-OPEC+ production and decelerating demand growth.

OPEC has recently downgraded its oil demand growth forecasts, but this change does not appear to alter its planned production adjustments.

Recent trends in U.S. refining and oil inventories are exacerbating global oil trading risks.

While futures prices registered day-on-day swings of 1.2-4.2% on each day of the period, the week-on-week shifts were a quarter of a percent or less.