Markets

A three-month total closure of the Strait of Hormuz has shut in between 10MM b/d and 15MM b/d.of crude oil.

Global energy markets faced profound volatility during the final week of May, dictated by a tug-of-war between physical supply strains and accelerating diplomatic updates.

Global crude oil benchmarks are entering a critical juncture as the market transitions into the first week of June.

The International Energy Agency (IEA) in May 2026 signaled the structural shift in global energy capital expenditures.

The persistent de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz by Iran and the US has stranded 14MM to 15MM b/d of Middle Eastern crude production, forcing a massive rearrangement of global energy flows.

The Middle East supply squeeze has propelled Canadian bitumen and heavy crude volumes as the Strait of Hormuz strands 14MM to 15MM b/d of Middle Eastern crude production and has radically restructured international energy trade flows.

While the European Union (EU) has significantly increased its imports of US crude to replace these lost volumes, industry experts warn that these US barrels—drawn heavily from finite inventories—will run out sooner rather than later.

The geopolitical squeeze on Eastern European refiners has escalated into a highly volatile operational challenge, forcing rapid slate adjustments and complex compliance maneuvering.

The ongoing seaborne supply constraints out of the Middle East have blocked approximately one-fifth of global crude trade, sending regional energy prices soaring and depleting international stockpiles.

The global crude oil market enters the final week of May 2026 balanced on a razor's edge.