Markets

Global refined product markets face a severe supply squeeze as refinery runs collapse, product exports plunge, and spare refining capacity becomes increasingly limited.

US refiners are operating at record levels with capacity utilization at 96.2%, yet they face a complex landscape of converging challenges and opportunities.

The five-month-old Iran war has triggered a global refining boom, pushing refining margins to record highs as disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, reduced Asian throughput, and export restrictions squeezed diesel, gasoline, and jet fuel markets.

Despite a 6%+ drop in crude futures following the suspension of military strikes against Iran, U.S. retail fuel prices remain elevated across all refined products.

Global fuel supply chains face unprecedented stress as war-driven disruptions in the Middle East and Russia push the refining sector to its operational limits.

Extreme structural constraints in global refining have inverted the traditional crude-to-product pricing relationship, allowing middle distillate scarcity to drive upstream crude valuations.

Global refining margins for gasoline, diesel, and jet fuel have surged to historic levels in July 2026, driven by geopolitical conflicts, capacity destruction, export restrictions, and depleted inventories.

The intensifying war in Iran has split the domestic processing strategies of Asia’s largest oil consumers.

The escalation of the Middle East conflict in late Feb. 2026 has triggered a critical global jet fuel supply crisis, placing historic operational strain on international air travel, particularly across Europe and Asia.

The seven-week closure of the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a systemic fuel crisis across the Eastern Hemisphere.