Markets

The week witnessed significant volatility in crude oil futures, primarily driven by US President Donald Trump's rhetoric regarding sanctions on Russia and Iran, the implementation of new tariffs, and a surprising shift in OPEC+ production policy.

The global oil market is facing a complex interplay of geopolitical threats, aggressive trade policies, and supply-side adjustments, all contributing to unprecedented volatility.

The oil cartel began Mar. with a production decrease to 27.43 MM /d, down 110K b/d, aiming to improve member compliance with quotas, particularly in Nigeria and Iraq.

The Jan. output in the US fell to 13.15MM /d, the lowest level in over a year, according to the US Energy Information Administration (EIA).

The Central Asian country's combined crude oil and condensate production reached a record high of 2.17MM b/d in Mar., consistently exceeding its OPEC+ crude oil quota of 1.468MM b/d.

The latest round of US sanctions on Iran indicates a growing resolve to tighten the economic pressure on Tehran, according to Rystad Energy.

US refiners have established a highly advantageous refining sector by heavily depending on crude oil imports from Canada and Mexico, particularly heavy crude, which is not sufficiently available domestically.

A monthly Reuters poll in Mar. indicated that analysts anticipate capped oil price increases for the remainder of 2025.

European refiners are facing increasing pressure to adapt to the energy transition, with several closures already underway and more expected in the coming years.

The week ending Mar. 28 saw crude oil futures experience volatility driven by a complex interplay of factors.