Markets

With many markets closed on April 15 for the Good Friday holiday, futures prices for crudes and petroleum products jumped over the short week ending April 14 due in part to projections of lower output from Russia amid widespread sentiment that buyers will seek alternative supplies even if not forced to do so by sanctions.

The 1-3% week-on-week declines for ICE Brent, NYMEX WTI, and DME Oman over the week ending April 8 were much lower than the 10-14% drops of the previous week that had been due in large part to the US's announcement that it plans to release 1MM b/d of crude from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) during May-Oct.

New lockdown measures in parts of Asia in an effort to minimize the spread of COVID-19 had market participants focused on demand destruction early in the week.

Supply-side concerns retook center stage during the week ending March 25 as drone and missile strikes on a refinery and other Saudi Arabian oil installations took place on March 20 and on March 25.

Early-week hopes for progress in talks between Ukraine and Russia were dashed by the end of the week, sparking expectations that more sanctions may be levied against Russia, further disrupting global energy flows.

The main price drivers during the week ending March 11 were the ongoing conflict in Ukraine, on-and-off talks over bringing Iran's oil back to the international market, the early stages of talks to ease sanctions on Venezuela's oil industry, and hopes (though possibly in vain) for more crude production from OPEC+ members.

With new rounds of sanctions being imposed and traders largely avoiding purchases of Russian crude and refined products, futures prices for NYMEX and ICE crudes and petroleum products gained more than 20% while DME Oman crude was up by 17% over the week ending March 4.

Described by many reporters as the biggest attack on a European country since World War II, the invasion prompted new rounds of sanctions on various political and business figures and entities in Russia, including major banks. Fresh sanctions were imposed not only by western countries, but also by Japan and Australia.

After eight week-on-week increases, futures prices for NYMEX, and ICE crudes and products eased back over the week ending Feb. 18, though DME Oman crude made a modest weekly gain after having retreated in the previous week.

While there were some day-on-day declines due to the expectation that Iran may resume crude exports as negotiations over lifting sanctions were making some progress, NYMEX WTI and ICE Brent soared on Friday due to the tensions at the Russian-Ukrainian border.