Opportunity Crudes

Recent reports from the EIA indicate a notable decline in US imports of Canadian crude, averaging 3.499MM b/d for the week ending Oct. 2, 2024.

The flow of Canadian crude into the US midcontinent (PADD 2) remains strong following the launch of the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline on May 1, 2024.

The expansion of Canada’s Trans Mountain pipeline, which carries crude oil from Alberta to the Pacific coast, is now considered a fossil fuel subsidy of at least C$8.7B ($6.4B), according to the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD).

The completion of the Trans Mountain Expansion Project (TMX) is reshaping oil trade flows and impacting US refineries significantly

The recent expansion of the Trans Mountain pipeline, which began partial operations in May 2024, was anticipated to enhance Canadian oil producers' market access and improve pricing.

US’s northern neighbor has become a crucial supplier of crude oil to its refineries, with Canadian oil now constituting 60% of US crude oil imports as of 2023, up from 33% a decade earlier.

In Canada, the energy industry is currently in a boom phase, driven by the recent inauguration of the Trans Mountain Expansion Project (TMX) in May.

The startup of the Trans Mountain Expansion (TMX) pipeline has reshaped Canadian crude oil exports, significantly boosting shipments to the US and global markets.

In May 2024, the re-export of Canadian heavy crude oil from the Gulf Coast reached a 17-month low, averaging 98K b/d.

Crude exports from Canada's Pacific coast experienced a significant increase in June, with volumes quadrupling due to the expanded Trans Mountain pipeline system.