Markets

In 2025, the US Gulf of Mexico is set to achieve record oil production, expected to reach around 2MM b/d, driven by the commencement of several major deepwater fields.

The potential return of Donald Trump to the White House in 2025 could have far-reaching consequences for the global oil market, particularly in regard to the flow of Iranian oil to China.

Mediterranean imports of Middle Eastern crude are expected to increase in 2025, as Russian and Iranian supply dwindles, despite rising prices.

The global oil market in 2025 is poised to see a surplus, driven by increasing non-OPEC+ supply and modest demand growth.

There are challenges and opportunities for European refiners amid upcoming refinery closures and the energy transition with consideration of Trump's second-term impacts.

The oil futures market saw mixed movements during the final week of Dec., influenced by a combination of geopolitical tensions, economic data, and supply concerns. 

Demand forecasts for 2025 have also been revised downward by several agencies, including OPEC and the International Energy Agency (IEA).

In 2024, US oil production reached a record high, surpassing the previous year’s achievement of 12.9MM b/d.

In Nov., India reduced its imports of Russian crude oil, bringing the total down by 13% to 1.52MM b/d, compared to the previous month.

The following are key trends of the global oil market to watch in the coming year.