Markets

If year-end prices and refining margins were the sole metrics for evaluating a year, then 2023 demonstrated a calmer disposition compared to 2022.

Recent assessments from both the International Energy Agency (IEA) and OPEC provide nuanced insights into the complex landscape of the global oil and gas market, with a notable focus on the anticipated trajectory of demand.

In the realm of oil price forecasting, two prominent entities— the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) and Citi—present contrasting viewpoints, shedding light on the intricacies of the oil market.

Traders Most Bearish on Oil Since March 2023:

In 2024, the global oil and gas market faces impending challenges as the supply of medium sour crude tightens.

As 2024 unfolds, Wall Street's cautious stance on oil prices mirrors concerns about limited upside potential.

In the US, the locational premium of WTI Houston over WTI Midland is anticipated to widen, reflecting the sustained export demand and the rising Permian crude production.

Refineries in the continent are grappling with a decline in demand for fuels, leading to a reluctance among many operators to invest in plant upgrades.

Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak's forecast of Brent oil prices between $80-85/b in 2024 echoes Russia's strategy to bolster revenues amidst geopolitical challenges.

US Sour Crude Market Dynamics in a Global Context